Forecasting the FIFA WC

Here you are the forecaster

Are you a football/soccer expert? Can you forecast the results of the 2018 World Cup matches better than a mathematical model? Here's your chance to prove it!

You'll be competing against two models---Chance de Gol and Previsão Esportiva---but also against all the other competitors. After each match the forecasts will be scored according to the rules (described here) and the best forecaster will be the one with highest score after the 64 matches of the WC. Beware that we are not asking you to predict the final score of each match. You must provide your probabilistic forecast of each match, noticing that the scoring rules punishes overconfidence.

Use the sliders below to select YOUR probabilities of each possible result (victory of each team or draw). The left part (dark blue) of the bar displays your probability that the team on the left will win. The middle of the bar (light grey) represents your probability that the match will end tied, and the right part (dark grey) of the bar shows your probability that the team on the right side will win.

Don't forget to sign in using Google or Facebook to save your selections. You can also create leagues to compete against your friends.